CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Wed 30 Nov 06:00 - Thu 01 Nov 06:00 2005 (UTC)
ISSUED: 29 Nov 21:47 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

General situation is not expected to change during the forecast period. Long-wave trough from Scandinavia to southwestern Europe at the 500 hPa level remains while expanding westward. At its southeastern flank ... strong upper jet is present over Mediterranean. At lower levels ... cold airmass covers the forecast region ... characterized by rather steep low-level lapse rates ... especially over the sea. Warm airmass advects into eastern Mediterranean during the period.

DISCUSSION

...Central Mediterranean ...
Shallow showers and thunderstorms are expected to go on during the period. Although QG forcing should be weak ... and well-organized convection is not expected ... severe wind gusts and tornadoes are not completely ruled out as vertical wind shear is strong. Allover threat should be low.

...Eastern Mediterranean ...
WAA will lead to QG forcing. GFS model output indicates some CAPE. However ... low-level airmass is expected to be too cold for surface-based storms ... and elevated convection should be non-severe in general. Main thread should be intense precip and strong wind gusts.

...Western Norway ...
In the range of polar low ... intense snow showers capable of producing severe wind gusts are forecast.

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